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The Delhi Assembly elections have always been a crucial political event, drawing immense public and media attention. Exit polls play a vital role in predicting election outcomes, but they have not always been accurate. In this article, we will look at past exit poll predictions from 2013, 2015, and 2020, comparing them to actual results.
With the Delhi voting percentage and election trends being key discussion points, let’s analyze how these surveys have performed over the years.
History of Delhi Exit Polls
2013 Elections: Underestimating AAP’s Rise
In 2013, exit polls struggled to predict the debut performance of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP).
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The average of four exit polls predicted that the BJP would win 35 seats, just short of the 36-seat majority mark.
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The AAP was expected to secure 17 seats, while the Congress was also estimated to win 17 seats.
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The actual results, however, saw the BJP winning 32 seats, AAP securing an impressive 28 seats, and Congress managing just eight.
The polls significantly underestimated AAP’s performance, failing to account for the public support the party had built following the India Against Corruption movement.
Most Accurate Poll:
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Today’s Chanakya gave AAP 31 seats, BJP 29, and Congress 10, making it the closest prediction.
Biggest Miss:
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Headlines Today-ORG predicted a BJP majority with 41 seats, which was far from reality.
2015 Elections: Failing to Capture AAP’s Landslide Victory
By 2015, exit polls improved in predicting an AAP majority but still failed to estimate the scale of its victory.
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On average, six exit polls predicted AAP would win 45 seats, with the BJP at 24 and Congress at just one.
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However, the actual results were astonishing: AAP won 67 out of 70 seats, leaving only three for the BJP.
Most Accurate Poll:
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Axis My India estimated AAP would win 53 seats, the closest prediction.
Biggest Miss:
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India TV-CVoter gave AAP just 39 seats, significantly underestimating their dominance.
Exit polls also overestimated BJP’s strength, with most predicting the party would win over 20 seats when it managed only three. The Congress’s failure to win a single seat was correctly predicted by some agencies like Today’s Chanakya and Axis My India.
2020 Elections: Improved Accuracy, But Still Off the Mark
In 2020, exit polls showed a noticeable improvement in accuracy.
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The average of eight exit polls predicted AAP would win 54 seats, BJP 15, and Congress close to none.
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The final results saw AAP securing 62 seats and BJP winning eight.
Most Accurate Poll:
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India Today-Axis My India provided the best estimate, giving AAP a range of 59-68 seats and BJP between 2-11 seats.
Biggest Miss:
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India TV-Ipsos gave AAP just 44 seats, significantly underestimating its strength.
While exit polls got the trend right, they once again failed to fully capture AAP’s massive lead.
Key Takeaways from Delhi Exit Polls
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AAP’s Debut Was Underestimated: In 2013, most polls failed to predict AAP’s strong performance.
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AAP’s 2015 Victory Was a Shock: No exit poll foresaw AAP winning 67 out of 70 seats.
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More Accuracy in 2020: Exit polls in 2020 were much closer to actual results but still underestimated AAP’s margin.
With the Delhi voting percentage playing a crucial role in determining outcomes, it will be interesting to see how exit polls perform in the upcoming elections.
Conclusion
Exit polls offer a glimpse into voter sentiment, but they are not always accurate. Over the years, they have underestimated AAP’s dominance while overestimating BJP’s and Congress’s performance. As the Delhi election news unfolds, the accuracy of new exit polls will be tested again.
Will they finally get it right this time? Stay tuned to find out!
