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Mark Carney's Canada Election Polls: A Tight Race
Canada's 2025 federal election is shaping up to be a nail-biter, with recent polls painting a picture of a surprisingly close contest. While early projections favored a Conservative victory under Pierre Poilievre, a late surge in support for Prime Minister Mark Carney and his Liberal Party has dramatically shifted the landscape.
YouGov's MRP Model: A Liberal Majority?
YouGov's final MRP model, based on responses from 5,964 Canadian adults, predicts a Liberal majority government. They project the Liberals winning between 162 and 204 seats (a central estimate of 185), compared to the Conservatives' projected 119 to 159 seats (central estimate of 135). The Bloc Québécois, NDP, and Greens are predicted to win a smaller number of seats. This suggests a 90% probability of a Liberal majority, although a hung parliament remains possible.
Yahoo Canada Polls: Public Sentiment
While non-scientific, Yahoo Canada's polls, drawing nearly half a million responses, offer a glimpse into public sentiment. These polls consistently favored Poilievre as the preferred PM, with Carney trailing significantly. This disparity highlights the limitations of non-scientific polls versus sophisticated models like YouGov's MRP.
| Party | YouGov Projected Seats | Yahoo Preferred PM (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Liberal (Carney) | 162-204 | 29 |
| Conservative (Poilievre) | 119-159 | 68 |
| NDP (Singh) | 3 | 1 |
| Bloc Québécois | 18 | 0 |
Key Riding Battles
The election's outcome hinges on key ridings in Ontario's Greater Toronto Area (GTA). While the Liberals have historically dominated the region, the Conservatives need gains here to secure a majority. Specific ridings like Toronto—St. Paul's, Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill, and Milton East—Halton Hills South are particularly crucial.
Conclusion: An Uncertain Outcome
The 2025 Canadian federal election remains highly competitive. While YouGov's model suggests a Liberal majority, Yahoo Canada's polls, and the closeness of the race, emphasize the volatility of public opinion and the potential for an unexpected result. Stay tuned for election night!
