India's economic outlook remains robust as the Finance Ministry anticipates GDP growth to comfortably exceed 6.5% in the fiscal year 2023-24.


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In a surprising turn of events, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for July-September soared to an impressive 7.6%, surpassing economists' predictions of 6.8%. The unexpected surge has prompted the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to revise its growth forecast for the fiscal year 2023-24 by 50 basis points to 7.0%.

Indian economy likely to record 9.2% growth in 2021-22

While presenting the Economic Survey for 2022-23 on January 31, 2023, Chief Economic Adviser V Anantha Nageswaran had initially forecasted a 6.5% growth for the Indian economy in the following fiscal year. The Finance Ministry now expresses confidence that the actual growth rate will comfortably exceed this projection, based on the blockbuster data from the third quarter.

Geopolitical developments, particularly outside India's borders, pose potential risks to the country's growth and stability. However, officials from the Ministry's Department of Economic Affairs remain optimistic, emphasizing the resilience of the Indian economy.

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The half-yearly economic review report, released on December 29, highlights the robust economic activity in October and November, suggesting a continuation of momentum in the fourth quarter of 2023-24. Urban consumption remains a key driver, while rural demand has experienced a notable uptick.

Despite these positive indicators, the report also acknowledges the impact of geopolitical factors on India's external sector, resulting in a contraction of goods exports in the first half of the current financial year. Furthermore, concerns about relatively high food inflation are tempered by the global context, with India's 6.6% food inflation in October being comparatively lower than that of the UK, Japan, and South Africa.

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In conclusion, India's economic landscape appears promising, with the Finance Ministry expecting GDP growth to comfortably exceed its initial forecast of 6.5% in the fiscal year 2023-24. The resilience of both urban and rural consumption, coupled with strong economic activity, signals a positive trajectory for the coming months.

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