China has started its largest ever military exercise around Taiwan as political tensions are at their highest in the region. So, we are forced to ask the following questions:-
Is there a history between the two?
China and Taiwan have always been at odds. Taiwan, which is officially known as the Republic of China, separated from Communist China after the Chinese Civil War of 1949.
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Taiwan has a government independent of China but Beijing has always asserted that there is only "one China" and that Taiwan was a part of it. Taiwan has always maintained that it is independent of China while China has always considered it a part of it.
What is happening currently?
On 4th August 2022, China launched its largest-ever military exercise encircling Taiwan. These exercises are being carried out in six zones around Taiwan.
Chinese media said that the army carried out five precision missile strikes in the Taiwan strait while 27 Chinese warplanes flew into Taiwanese airspace. Moreover, the media said that the exercises were joint operations focused on "blockade, sea target assault, strike on ground targets and airspace control." and will end after 3 days.
What happened recently to incite such a response?
The main reason for the recent aggression by China is the visit of Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the US House of Representatives, to Taiwan. This is the first time in 25 years that a high-level US representative has visited Taiwan.
This visit was a part of the Speaker's Asia Tour, which had attracted several threats from China. The US has asked China to not indulge in provocations while reassuring them that the visit will not result in any change in policies towards the region.
Some reports suggest that China is against the visit since her visit could send a message of pro-independence while China is trying to bring the country back under its wing. Her visit has been treated as a "gross interference in China's internal affairs"
How is Taiwan being affected?
Due to the effective blockade around Taiwan, ships and aircraft are prohibited in the area. Moreover, economic measures have also been imposed by China, but they are meager. China halted imports of fish, fruits, and a few other agricultural products while exports of sand to the island nation have also ceased.
But no bans were placed on semiconductors exported by Taiwan as China is also reliant on Taiwan for the same as some estimates suggest that China accounts for 60% of the world's semiconductor demand. Taiwan accounts for almost 92% of all advanced semiconductor production in the world.
What is Taiwan's response?
Taiwan says as many as 51 international flights have been canceled today itself due to the military exercise. Taiwan has blamed China for trying to destabilize the peace and change the status quo in the region. However, Taiwan has also been preparing for the conflict as well.
Taiwan has mandatory military service which is currently for a period of 4 months, but the same could be extended to a year since it isn't considered enough. Moreover, the country began war simulations wherein it practiced combat and civilian evacuation drills while replicating wartime situations.
What are other countries saying about China's aggression?
Russia has backed China over its threat against Pelosi's visit calling the US a "provocateur" and claiming that the visit was an effort by the US to pile pressure on China. Pakistan has also spoken in favor of China's actions while expressing "deep concern" about the actions of the US.
On the other hand, the G7 has condemned China's actions while accusing China of destabilizing the region.
What is India's stance on the matter?
India has maintained silence over Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. “India is one of the first countries to recognize that there is only one China. The Chinese side is willing to push forward the development of our relations on the basis of the 'One-China' principle,” Wang Xiaojian, the spokesperson of China's diplomatic mission in New Delhi, said in a statement.
Although India doesn't have diplomatic relations with Taiwan, both countries have good trade relations and have signed a Bilateral Trade Agreement in the past. Moreover, talks are in progress to establish a Free Trade Agreement between the countries.
What is expected to happen in the future?
Even though China is actively provoking Taiwan and its allies with this exercise, China's attack on Taiwan could lead to several disastrous consequences:
- A conflict would not be limited to China and Taiwan. A war would end up bringing countries like the US and Japan who have openly allied with Taiwan, escalating the conflict to a global war.
- An inevitable semiconductor crisis, only this one would be worse than the Covid-19-induced crisis. Although China has pledged to invest over $1 trillion for investment, its production accounts for less than 10% of the market. An attack on Taiwan would disable the production of electronics, automobiles, computers, etc. severely on a global scale.
- China could face sanctions similar to Russia. Russia has seen a severe outflow of companies from its lands as the country has been adversely affected by actions like its exclusion from the SWIFT system. A war might warrant similar actions from other countries which would cripple China's economy.
Considering these factors and a global disagreement about war, the possibility of a full-scale invasion seems low. However, if these tensions do end up triggering a conflict, the consequences, both economic and humanitarian, would be dire.
Report by the Jobaaj Group.
This news piece is brought to you in association with jobaaj.com