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Liberals Lose Support as Conservatives Close In: New Canada Election Poll
In the latest twist of Canada’s federal election race, the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, has seen its first drop in support since the campaign began. According to a new Ipsos poll conducted for Global News, the Liberals are polling at 42%, down four points from last week, while the Conservatives, under Pierre Poilievre, have risen to 36%, gaining two points.
Leaders' Popularity Shift
The momentum shift comes midway through the campaign, signaling a tighter race than expected. While Carney is still viewed as the most capable leader overall, Poilievre is gaining traction — especially on issues related to affordability and the economy.
Ipsos CEO Darrell Bricker says, “Whatever momentum the Liberals had, it’s now slowing. This is the first real boost for Conservatives since Carney became the Liberal leader.”
Voter Breakdown and Key Issues
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Liberal support: 42% (–4)
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Conservative support: 36% (+2)
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NDP: 11% (–1)
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Bloc Quebecois: 6% nationally (25% in Quebec)
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Green Party: 2% (–1)
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Undecided voters: 11% (+4)
The number of undecided voters is growing, just ahead of this week’s televised leaders’ debates in Montreal.
Debate Expectations
Carney is expected to perform best in the English debate, with 41% of respondents favoring him, while Poilievre is seen as the likely winner in the French-language debate at 34%.
Despite some erosion in support, Carney still leads when Canadians are asked who would make the best Prime Minister. However, his lead has narrowed, dropping four points to 41%, while Poilievre is up four, now at 36%.
Jagmeet Singh of the NDP remains steady at 12%.
Trump Tariffs and U.S.-Canada Relations
One key issue impacting voter sentiment is Canada’s relationship with the U.S., especially with the potential return of Donald Trump to the White House. Many Canadians still believe Carney is better equipped to handle negotiations with Trump and mitigate the effects of tariffs. However, Poilievre is gaining credibility on these issues too.
Interestingly, 42% of voters think Poilievre would give in too easily to Trump’s demands — but now, 27% think the same about Carney, a rise of five points.
Carney recently spoke with Trump and stated both countries would hold "comprehensive negotiations" on their future relationship after the election.
What Voters Want from the Next Government
When asked what policy changes the next government should focus on if Trump imposes tariffs, voters said:
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46% want lower income taxes
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41% want action on affordability
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30% want a temporary pause on GST/HST
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Other priorities include small business relief, corporate tax cuts, and first-time homebuyer support.
Rising Concern Over Cost of Living
The top issue this election is affordability, with 41% of voters ranking it first — up five points from two weeks ago. The economy, healthcare, and housing follow closely.
Conservatives are now slightly ahead of Liberals in handling affordability, whereas Liberals maintain a strong lead on managing Canada-U.S. relations.
Bricker explains: “If voters care most about Trump and trade, Liberals are favored. But if cost of living is the main concern, Conservatives have the edge.”
