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Liberals Projected to Win, but Majority Slips Away
Mark Carney's Liberal Party is projected to win Canada's 2025 federal election, securing a fourth consecutive term in office. However, early results show the party has won 160 out of 343 seats in the House of Commons—falling short of the 172 needed for a majority. This outcome points to a likely minority government, which would require support from other parties to function effectively.
Carney Rises as Trudeau Steps Down
Carney, a former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, stepped into party leadership in March following the resignation of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Trudeau left office amid declining public support and growing tension within the Liberal Party. Carney quickly reshaped the campaign around a message of economic stability, while positioning himself firmly against U.S. President Donald Trump's trade aggression.
U.S. Tariffs and Trump’s Remarks Sway Canadian Voters
The Liberal campaign capitalized on growing unease over President Trump’s trade policies, including harsh tariffs on Canadian exports and inflammatory comments about annexing Canada. These issues sparked strong nationalistic sentiment and helped Carney regain voter trust. His steady and economic-focused messaging resonated with Canadians seeking certainty in uncertain times.
Conservatives Lose Ground Under Poilievre
The Conservative Party, led by Pierre Poilievre, entered the race with strong momentum but failed to maintain it. Poilievre faced heavy criticism for his perceived alignment with Donald Trump’s policies, which alienated many moderate and undecided voters. This shift in sentiment played a major role in the Liberals’ surprising comeback after trailing in the polls earlier in the year.
Minority Government Likely, Coalition Talks Ahead
With 160 seats secured, the Liberals will likely need to form a minority government. That could mean negotiating alliances with parties like the New Democratic Party (NDP) or the Bloc Québécois to pass legislation and ensure parliamentary support. While the final seat counts are still being confirmed, the Liberals' comeback under Carney’s leadership marks a significant political shift in Canada.
For the latest, verified results, Canadians are encouraged to visit the official Elections Canada website.
